A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Both authors two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
